In brief
In October, Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated to 3.75%, driven by higher electricity, airfares and agricultural prices, and remains within the Bank of Mexico’s 3 % ± 1 % target. Core inflation hit 3.80% year‑on‑year. Banamex forecasts a slight uptick to 3.9% by the end of 2026.
Mexico’s annual inflation climbed to 3.75 percent in October, according to data released Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, up from 3.57 percent recorded a year earlier.
The monthly Consumer Price Index rose 0.65 percent in October, surpassing last year’s 0.36 percent increase, and the core inflation rate—excluding volatile items—rose 0.34 percent month‑on‑month and 3.80 percent year‑on‑year.
Key contributors to the higher rate were electricity rates, which climbed 18.51 percent; airfares, which jumped 26.36 percent; and tomato prices, which rose 9.68 percent.
Both headline and core annual inflation stay inside the Bank of Mexico’s 3 percent plus or minus a percentage point target range.
In a separate report, private bank Banamex noted that October’s monthly inflation jump was the largest since 2021 and projected annual headline inflation to reach 3.9 percent and core inflation to 3.7 percent by the end of 2026, while maintaining 3.9 percent forecasts for 2027.
Banamex cited potential upside risks such as the pass‑through of recent minimum wage hikes to other wages, forthcoming El Nino weather conditions, rising fertilizer costs, and the impact of the recent currency depreciation on non‑food goods.
