In brief
A flash report released by the EU climate monitor on November 6 confirms that global average temperatures will almost certainly exceed the 1.5‑degree Celsius threshold in 2026, marking this year as the second calendar year to cross the mark after 2024. The finding underscores an urgent need for policy action. The report links the data to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5‑degree goal.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service, part of the European Union’s climate monitoring system, reports that 2026 is virtually certain to become the second calendar year that global average temperatures exceed the 1.5‑degree Celsius threshold, following 2024.
Released on November 6, 2026, the main report was published by Xinhua and includes a flash update issued earlier that day at 17:01:16 UTC, affirming the same conclusion and urging renewed urgency for climate policy.
EU climate experts said the finding underscores that previously kept margins for staying below the target are now eroded, and that the world must accelerate mitigation and adaptation measures.
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, set 1.5°C as an upper limit to reduce the worst consequences of climate change; 2024 was the first calendar year seen to surpass that level, and the new data indicates 2026 will follow.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service monitors data from more than 80 ground stations and satellite observations, basing its 2026 forecast on trend analysis and model projections that account for recent warming patterns.
International climate actors have responded by calling for stronger policy, although the report does not detail specific measures. The track record of the Copernicus service gives the forecast a strong scientific foundation, but policymakers must act quickly to avoid crossing the threshold without mitigation.